Research carried out under an agreement between DGALN (Directorate-General for Planning, Housing and Nature) and CEA (with LI​TEN, ISEC and SBEM, CEA's Bibliometrics and Marketing Studies Department).

Start and end dates: Sept. 2022 - June 2026.

As part of this agreement, I-Tésé developed a system dynamics model (Stella environment) on the evolution of supply and demand for critical minerals in lithium-ion batteries to identify public policy levers that have an impact on the independence and security of supplies.

This work consisted of a physical approach to value chains (flows and stocks), providing a forward-looking vision for 2050 (and beyond) at the European and global levels. A focus on batteries (mobility and stationary storage: ESS) was carried out.

Tasks performed by I-Tésé:

• Development of a system dynamics model to analyze the evolution of supply (primary and secondary) and demand for several lithium-ion battery minerals (lithium, cobalt, nickel) at the European and global scales by 2050 (and beyond).

• Analysis the associated material needs for the energy transition (focus on batteries) at different scales and time horizons. 
  

• Production a base-case scenario, a sensitivity analysis, and alternative scenarios of transition at the European scale for the resources considered.​

• Identification of public policy levers to reduce supply risks and improve European/national independence in order to meet the needs and demand for minerals in Europe and/or European gigafactories (construction of an independence index).
  

Year 1: lithium = ANTLIA model: Anticipation of Lithium Amounts for the Energy Transition

Year 2: cobalt = COMAE model: Anticipation of Cobalt Amounts for the Energy Transition

Year 3: coupling of lithium and cobalt and production (in progress) of a nickel model.​