Currently, energy in the form of heat constitutes 45% of France's total energy consumption. This energy is utilized for heating both residential and commercial buildings, as well as for various industrial processes such as drying, metal smelting and different chemical reactions.

However, the majority of this heat is still generated using fossil fuels, presenting significant challenges for decarbonization. Addressing this issue is one of the key objectives of the French energy regulation “PPE3", which aims at almost doubling heat production from renewable energy sources by 2035.​

Unlike electricity, heat is a very heterogeneous use of energy. Temperature requirements vary greatly: low-temperature heat below 100°C is typically used for building heating, while some industrial processes require much higher temperatures, exceeding 1000°C in some cases. Additionally, heat has a strong local and regional impact, as it is difficult to transport, necessitating production close to the demand.

Since 2023, I-Tésé has been conducting research aimed at better understanding the structure of heat demand in France, with the following objectives:

• Projecting demand trends up to 2050 and incorporating these projections into the Institute's models
• Evaluating the relevance of decarbonized technological solutions (renewable energy, nuclear, etc.) based on specific contexts.

To achieve these goals, our study focused on the two sectors with the highest heat consumption: industry and residential and tertiary buildings. The study looked at the structuring of heating demand and its geographical distribution within these sectors.

 

For buildings, the study is based on the National Building Database published by the CSTB (Scientific and Technical Center for Building). By combining structural and usage data for buildings with consumption data from sources like Energy Performance Certificates, along with local weather data, the study maps the annual heating requirements for each individual building.