Key resources for the energy transition
Our objective are to study
- the primary and secondary resources (uranium, lithium & cobalt, other metals, biomass, carbon) available/required over the long term (2050, 2100) for existing and future technologies used to decarbonize the energy system at different geographical scales (world/Europe/France);
- new dependencies and independence strategies (actors and territories), taking into account geopolitical (eg. lithium & cobalt) and regulatory (eg. carbon) dimensions;
- value chains and their integration into the energy system (scenarios)
The transitions, particularly the energy transition, will require the use of resources. Numerous scenarios can be used to define demand profiles, while ARTE research are focusing on:
- the use hierarchy (with the exception of uranium, which has a single use and is non-substitutable) and the possible valorisation of these resources;
- the establishment of supply curves (mines, biomass, etc.);
- the impacts of these trajectories in terms of cost, infrastructure, land/subsoil/territory links, and environment, but also in terms of dependence/sovereignty, public policy options, and the R&D role (new technologies, material intensity, etc.);
- the integration of these new options into the global energy system.
To do this, we integrate combine technical, process knowledge and economic expertise, modeling, geopolitics/economic geography, and geology.
We use the following tools:
- System dynamics (STELLA, VENSIM): By analysing the use of stocks, flows, feedback loops and delays, this modelling approach provides insight into the behaviour of complex systems over time and simulates the dynamics of interactions and processes. This approach has historically been used for uranium and plutonium via the GRUS model (Uranium Resource Management with Stella) and more recently for other metals (lithium-ANTLIA, cobalt-COMAE, nickel, etc.).
- Multi-criteria analysis: a set of methods for decision support taht enable the representation of a system on which decisions are to be made by formalising parameters, objective and sub-objectives.
- The GPN method - Global Production Network: a conceptual representation of a dynamic and multidimensional network that enables the analysis of production chains and actors (companies, institutions, territories)
- Mapping and GIS (Geographic Information System) approaches
- Energy System Modelling