Key resources for the energy transition
Our objective: to study
- the primary and secondary resources (in particular metals, biomass, carbon) available/required over the long term (2050, 2100) for existing and future technologies used to decarbonize the energy system (uranium, lithium & cobalt, carbon) at different geographical scales (world/Europe/France);
- new dependencies and independence strategies (actors and territories), taking into account geopolitical (lithium & cobalt) and regulatory (carbon) dimensions;
- value chains and their integration into the energy system (scenario planning) (uranium in the nuclear system, lithium & cobalt, carbon).
Transitions, particularly the energy transition, will require the use of resources. Numerous scenarios can be used to define demand profiles. Research questions at I-Tésé focus on:
- the hierarchy of resource use (with the exception of uranium, which has a single use and is non-substitutable) and the possible uses of these resources;
- the establishment of supply curves (mines, biomass, , etc.);
- the impacts of these trajectories in terms of cost, infrastructure, land/subsoil/territory links, the environment, but also in terms of dependence/sovereignty, public policy options, and the role of R&D (new technologies, material intensity, etc.);
- the integration of these new options into the global energy system.
To do this, we integrate in-house technical and economic expertise and knowledge of processes, modeling, geopolitics/economic geography, and geology.
We use the following tools:
- System dynamics (STELLA, VENSIM): By analyzing the use of stocks, flows, feedback loops, and delays, this modeling approach provides insight into the behavior of complex systems over time and simulates the dynamics of interactions and processes. This approach has historically been used for uranium and plutonium via the GRUS (Uranium Resource Management with Stella) model and more recently for other metals (lithium-ANTLIA, cobalt-COMAE, nickel, etc.).
- Multi-criteria analysis: a set of methods to aid decision-making. These methods enable the representation of a system on which decisions are to be made by formalizing parameters, an objective, and sub-objectives.
- The GPN (Global Production Network) method: conceptual representation of a dynamic, multidimensional network that enables the analysis of production chains and actors (companies, institutions, territories).
- Mapping and GIS (Geographic Information System) approaches.