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Rice Yield Losses Expected Under Future Global Warming

As the staple food for more than half of the world’s population, rice is expected to drop considerably in yield in the event of significant climate change, necessitating CO2 fertilization and the genetic selection of adaptable species.

Published on 7 March 2017

​Field warming experiments over short periods of time lead to substantial rice yield loss: -5,2%/°C. Projections by 2100 from global yield prediction models, calibrated from these experimental data, lead to worrying results for the warming expected for that period: -8,3 %/°C. This value exceeds the hypotheses put forward by the International Food Policy Research Institute, which estimated declines from -4.2%/°C to -6.4%/°C. This study recommends the implementation of active adaptation and mitigation strategies (e.g., genetic selection). 

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