​PUBLICATION 

Probabilistic modeling of European Li-ion battery production and recycling

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Congratulations to Loïs Miraux, Tanguy Manescau and Vincent Bos from the CEA I-Tésé for publishing this article in the journal Resources, Conservation and Recycling!

👉 Context
The deployment of lithium-ion battery production and recycling capacities is central to the EU’s ambitions for strategic autonomy and climate neutrality, yet announced projects face high uncertainty.

🧐 The aim of this article:
Using a new database of project announcements, a probabilistic framework and a system dynamics model of battery demand, aging, and second-life use, this study estimates effective capacities for European Gigafactories, Spokes and Hubs over 2020-2035.

🔎 Main results
Results indicate that cell production could reach 750-855 GWh/yr by 2035 (45-51% of announcements), far below projected demand exceeding 1,500 GWh/yr.
With unconstrained international waste imports supplying them, recycling capacities could reach 0.72 Mt batteries/yr (Spokes) and 0.28 Mt black mass/yr (Hubs), yielding closed-loop recycling rates of 9-10% for key metals. However, without imports, domestic feedstock scarcity causes 30-50% attrition of recycling capacities, especially if electric vehicle batteries enter second-life, worsening circularity.
Overall, meeting EU circularity and strategic autonomy goals will require faster deployment and reliable feedstock access.

👉 Read the article: https://bit.ly/4anvuKT