WORKING PAPER
Understanding the dynamics of the French intraday market: insights on the roles of balancing needs and flexibility
Mathieu RICHARD
Intraday markets are gaining importance in Europe, particularly in the context of renewable energy deployment and the harmonization of balancing models. France is no stranger to this dynamic, having experienced a surge in intraday market size, with total trading volumes nearly doubling between 2021 and 2024. This paper aims to study the intraday dynamics in the unique context of the French balancing phase. Through econometric modelling, we assess how traded volume, price level, and price volatility are influenced by balancing adjustment needs and short-term flexibility availability. In particular, the role of forecast error from renewables production located in France or abroad is assessed. Building on the methodology of Soysal et al. (2017) in combination with panel econometric methods, we can disentangle the effect on market dynamics of positive and negative forecast error. Preliminary results, focusing on hourly products from the continuous market, illustrate the balancing role of the French intraday market for both the French and other neighbouring countries' power systems.